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May 26, 2022  |  Megan Belongia, Patrick Kim, Natasha Maki Jessen-Petersen

By the time Kelsey Lahr turned 30, she had already been put on evacuation warning over a dozen times and ultimately evacuated three times due to wildfires in California. She had friends who took their paintings down from the walls in the summers, and put them in their bathtubs. 

 

In the last several summers before Lahr left California, she had started putting a to-go bag with her valuables by the door, just in case.

 

"I have a dog, what do I do if the area catches on fire and I can't get home to my dog? I had an external hard drive that I took with me everywhere and my passport with my writing and my photos on it because what if I can't go home tonight because I end up getting evacuated. I've got to be prepared. It's just a really hard way to live," Lahr said.

 

Lahr loved California. Her career and her family were there, but the constant threat to her safety was getting to her.

 

"It's really hard to convey [...] just how stressful it is to be always ready to not come home that night."

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Firefighters watch as an air tanker drops fire retardant over the Ferguson Fire in the Stanislaus National Forest, near Yosemite National Park, on July 21st, 2018. (Photo: Noah Berger/AFP/Getty Images)

Her catalyst for change came in 2018. It was the 2018 Ferguson Fire in Yosemite National Park and she knew that this time, when she was evacuated, that she had enough.

 

"It was becoming increasingly clear that it was not really a way to live anymore. And I had seen it in my adult life go from a place that was livable to a place that was no longer livable. And it was like, I'll never own a home here, and if I do,  it'll burn down or I won't be able to afford fire insurance. And so I started to look into other options,” Lahr said.

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She researched environmental projections for the future to identify what area would be safest for her to move to. She settled on the Appalachian mountains in Western North Carolina, an area without hurricanes and fires. She accepted the first job she was offered, packed her things, and moved to Asheville in Buncombe County.

 

Lahr is currently working part-time at a real estate company to supplement her teaching income. Almost everyone she’s helped to find a place has told her that they migrated to Asheville to escape threats from climate change elsewhere. Out of the 100 counties in North Carolina, Buncombe had the eighth most-people moving into the county from 47 different countries.

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289 people from 47 different states moved to Buncombe County, North Carolina from 2015-2019 according to the US Census Bureau's County-to-County Migration Flows data

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These people are not alone. According to CoreLogic’s 2021 Climate Change Catastrophe Report, 64% of Americans cited climate change or better weather as their reason to move in 2021, with over half reporting that their move in the past two years had not been expected.

 

Where and how North Americans live is likely to dramatically change in the near future given the serious repercussions of climate change. From variations in rainfall to rising temperatures, the environmental changes in the United States will likely force people to move northwards. Western wildfires will only worsen as the country becomes hotter, while southern areas will continue to flood, weighted down by extreme humidity levels.

 

The 2015 States at Risk Report Card, generated by ICF International and climate central identified five critical threats of climate change that will impact the way people live in states across the US: extreme heat, drought, wildfires, inland flooding, and coastal flooding

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In the southern states, counties such as Phoenix’s Maricopa County are likely to experience temperatures above 95 degrees for over half of the year. The heat, paired with extreme levels of humidity, will make it dangerous for people to be outdoors. Wildfires will cause many West Coasters to migrate east, with the northern Great Basin becoming an epicenter for large wildfires in 2050. Sea levels and high tides will flood most coastal areas, with people from large metropolitan cities such as Miami, New York, and Boston forced to move inward. Food will become challenging to grow and the U.S.’s most prevalent crops - corn and soy - will need to be reimagined to create sustainable sustenance for the American people. And lastly, damages from climate will continue to tally in the billions, with states such as Florida likely to lose half its economy in climate-related disasters.

 

Many Americans have already been forced to flee their homes due to natural disasters in the country. In the past decade alone, there have been over one hundred natural disasters, which have resulted in $761 billion in damage. In the preceding decade, there were only 59 similar disasters. Since 2018, there have been over 2 trillion dollars worth of damage due to natural disasters.

 

From the 2015-2018 post-drought firestorms in California, which resulted in over $43+ billion in damage, to the 2017 Hurricane Harvey in Houston, which cost $130 billion, Americans have relocated at unprecedented levels.

 

And although many climate models project irreversible damage in the future, the U.S. has already seen serious levels of movement as a result of climate-caused destruction.

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Tropical storms have caused over a trillion dollars in damage and caused 6,708 deaths in the past four decades according to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information

Hurricane Katrina: A Look at the Nightmare Ahead

In August 2005, the category 5 Hurricane Katrina made a devastating landfall in Louisiana. Overnight, 80% of New Orleans was submerged in floodwaters as deep as 20 feet - the height of most two-story buildings. A storm surge had resulted in a catastrophic failure of the city’s levee system, and spelled the immediate displacement of hundreds of thousands of people.

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Where flood levels were low enough, families waded, sometimes for miles, to reach temporary shelters. Others were left to wait for rescue for days on their rooftops. Initially, thousands sought refuge in the Louisiana Superdome, normally the stadium of the New Orleans Saints. But as chaos mounted and refugee numbers climbed, evacuees looked outside of the state to escape the destruction.


In the year following Hurricane Katrina, up to 76% of pre-storm residents from the hardest hit counties in Southern Louisiana migrated to live elsewhere in or outside of the state, as shown in the graphic below. IRS data reveals that 55.8% of Orleans Parish residents migrated out of the country between 2005 and 2006. The diaspora sent some as far as Alaska and Hawai’i, but most evacuees turned to neighboring Gulf States. Texas became a major hub for refugee relocation, and nearly 11% of New Orleans’ former residents set course for Houston.

Over 60,000 Katrina refugees fled to Huston’s Astrodome in the weeks following the hurricane and it is estimated that over a quarter of a million New Orleanians sought refuge in the city. 40,000 of these refugees chose not to return to New Orleans after the initial disaster and instead chose to make a new home in Houston. Some Katrina refugees found themselves once again displaced by the fatal floods that hit Houston and other parts of Texas following Hurricane Harvey in 2017.

 

Even for those fortunate to have evaded subsequent disasters, the trauma of post-Katrina displacement linger on. Many survivors spent over a year out of school or work, grieve the loss of community, and struggle with mental health.

 

These storms underscore the growing risk communities in the US - particularly coastal communities - face as a result of climate change. Yet, following both Hurricane Katrina and Harvey, Black communities were disproportionately affected by flooding, property damage, and displacement. These disasters demonstrate a greater pattern in which BIPOC communities face disproportionate exposure to climate change-related hazards.

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The Houston Astrodome housed over 60,000 refugees in the months following Hurricane Katrina. Credit: Andrea Booher/FEMA

Lahr was quick to point to her privilege, emphasizing that climate migration privileges those with the flexibility and financial means to move. As a young, educated woman without kids, she had both the career prospects and the resources to be able to relocate her life. Her sister made a similar move, further North to Portland, Oregon, at the same time as Lahr. 

 

Lahr’s parents are now retired and are currently packing up to prepare to move and join her in North Carolina next month.

 

“Even if you’re not immediately about to be evacuated, the air quality is so bad for so much of the year and across such huge swaths of the region that it’s like ‘why live in one of the best places in terms of climate in the world if you can’t go outside because the air quality is so bad,” Lahr said.

Government efforts to address climate change are inadequate to protect people from being forced to flee

Climate mitigation policies, such as those regulating greenhouse gas emissions to prevent global temperature rise often come to mind first when thinking of ways governments can play a role in tackling climate change. But adaptation policies that strengthen community resilience in the face of climate change are also critical.

 

Research shows that a dual mitigation and adaptation response to climate change is essential to reduce the risk of mass displacement. The construction of flood defenses, water-permeable pavements, durable housing structures, and sustainable agricultural systems are just as important as mitigation policies.​

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However, many states lack strong climate resilience policies, as can be seen in the map below. Texas – a state that has seen unprecedented flooding, climate-induced power outages, and violent hurricanes in the past decade – has only passed two climate resilience policies. Other states throughout the Midwest have implemented a handful of regulatory policies for resilience, but lack funding and other policy infrastructure.

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Fortunately, some states have been more successful. As of March 2022, California, a leader in environmental policy, has passed 18 policies directly related to climate resilience, including a $15 billion package passed in 2021. The package included $1.5 billion for wildfire resilience, $5.2 billion for water and drought resilience, and $1.1 billion for smart agriculture. Even traditionally conservative states such as Florida and Louisiana are beginning to implement climate resilience policies and have passed 11 and 10 policies, respectively.

As the climate crisis forces people out of their homes and creates displacement, climate resilience in communities throughout the United States is critical. Climate adaptation policy should not be an overlooked part of climate advocacy.

 

For Lahr, she knows that being in North Carolina will not protect her indefinitely from the threats of climate change. The air may be easier for her to breathe and she no longer takes her passport with her every time she leaves home, but Lahr realizes the environment will only worsen with time.

 

“You can’t outrun climate change, but also some places are going to be much, much worse off than others. I know that in 50 years Asheville is still going to have crazy humidity, probably lots of insect-borne diseases. Hurricanes to me are a little bit less scary than fire because they’re more predictable,” Lahr said.

 

“But yeah, nowhere is safe.”

Additional Visualizations:

An analysis of how people moved within the United States in 2019 according to the US Census Bureau's County-to-County Migration Flows data

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Citations

  1. CoreLogic. (2021). 2021 Climate Change Catastrophe Report. https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/2021-climate-change-catastrophe-report/ 

  2. Climate Central, ICF International. (2015). 2015 States at Risk Report Card. https://reportcard.statesatrisk.org/report-card 

  3. Shaw, A. & Lustgarten, A. (2020, September 15). “New Climate Maps Show a Transformed United States.” ProPublica. https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/

  4. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. “U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters.” Accessed May 23, 2022. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/ 

  5. Guliotta, G. & Whoriskey, P. (2005, August 31). “Floods Ravage New Orleans.” The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2005/08/31/floods-ravage-new-orleans/94ee4643-4a36-4d5b-aa14-b4a52cc26b9c/ 

  6. National Weather Service NOAA. (2005). “Extremely Powerful Hurricane Katrina Leaves a Historic Mark on the Northern Gulf Coast”. https://www.weather.gov/mob/katrina  

  7. Internal Revenue Service. (2006). SOI Tax Stats - Migration Data - Louisiana: County to County Outflow 2005-2006. https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data-louisiana 

  8. Holeywell, R. (2015). “How Houston Leaders Prepared the Astrodome for 60,000 Evacuees.” Rice Kinder Institute for Urban Research. https://kinder.rice.edu/2015/08/27/how-houston-leaders-prepared-the-astrodome-for-60000-evacuees 

  9. Jan, T. & Martin, B. (2017, August 29) “Houston took them in after Katrina. Then Harvey hit.” The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/29/houston-took-them-in-after-katrina-then-harvey-hit/ 

  10. Reckdahl, K. (2015, April 2). “The Lost Children of Katrina.” The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2015/04/the-lost-children-of-katrina/389345/ 

  11. Vestal., C. (2017, October 12). “‘Katrina Brain’: The invisible long-term toll of megastorms’.” The Agenda. https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/10/12/psychological-toll-natural-disasters-000547/ 

  12. ClimateXChange. “State Climate Policy Tracker.” Accessed May 12, 2022. https://climate-xchange.org/network/map/ 

  13. The Office of Governor Gavin Newsom. (2021, September 23). “Governor Newsom Signs Climate Action Bills, Outlines Historic $15 billion Package to Tackle the Climate Crisis and Protect Vulnerable Communities.” https://www.gov.ca.gov/2021/09/23/governor-newsom-signs-climate-action-bills-outlines-historic-15-billion-package-to-tackle-the-climate-crisis-and-protect-vulnerable-communities/

© 2022 by Megan Belongia, Natasha Jessen-Petersen, Patrick Kim.

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